September 2, 2021
New Polls: Newsom in Trouble
Earlier this month, results from a SurveyUSA poll showed that 51% of likely voters in California’s upcoming recall election would vote to remove Gov. Gavin Newsom from office. It was the first poll to show a majority favoring his removal and led to a dramatic shift in polling averages.
Before these results, polling averages calculated by the politics and data website FiveThirtyEight showed a seven-point margin favoring keeping Newsom in office. But with SurveyUSA’s data, the margin narrowed to less than one point. As of Aug. 17, the latest date for which FiveThirtyEight has data, the margin inched up to 1.2 points, with 48.8% for keeping Newsom in office and 47.6% for removing him.
FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages are considered the most sophisticated data-based method of assessing the state of the recall race. The numbers come from a statistical model that aggregates individual poll results into two averages. One average is for keeping Newsom in office and another for removing him.
The website has been producing these averages since mid-July but incorporates polls that go as far back as January. They also take into account the “quality” of the poll.”
FiveThirtyEight also tracks averages for whom Californians would choose as a replacement if Newsom is recalled. In their latest numbers, Larry Elder leads with an average of 19%, followed by Kevin Paffrath at 9% and John Cox at 6%. The other 43 candidates on the ballot have averages below 5%.
Westfield Mall Shooting
Two men apparently confronted a third man at the Westfield shopping center, also called the Fox Hills Mall.
The suspect or suspects were still at large Thursday night.
Redondo Beach Pier Shooting
8/25: A man in his 40’s began asking people “if they had a problem with him.” He then went on a shooting rampage on the Redondo Beach Pier on Wednesday at about 8:20 PM.
Four Redondo Beach policemen confronted the man, ultimately shooting and killing the man.
Lt. Beach Dean said he used an automatic weapon.
He shot a teenage boy and his dad in his 50’s. Both men were shot but were expected to recover from their injuries.
On witness said he saw a man he believes was the shooter hurtle over a railing and onto rocks below the pier, with officers in pursuit. He said he then heard roughly five gunshots and saw the man stumble and fall after being shot by police.
Police later said there was no motive, and that the shooter appears to have been mentally ill.
Warning About Weekend Rally
SMPD issued a waring that the rally set to take place near the pier on August 29th. The rally would be against the covid 19 vaccine and against the wearing of protective masks, said SMPD chief Jacqueline Seabrooks in a video posted to social media.
In the neighborhood North of Wilshire, someone circulated flyers telling people to